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	<title>Comments on: The certainty of chance</title>
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	<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/</link>
	<description>Ben Goldacre&#039;s Bad Science column from the Guardian and more...</description>
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		<title>By: jiang</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-30354</link>
		<dc:creator>jiang</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Dec 2009 05:22:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-30354</guid>
		<description>ed hardy &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy clothing &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy clothing&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy clothing&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy shop &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy shop&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy shop&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
christian audigier &lt;a title=&quot;christian audigier&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/christian-audigier.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;christian audigier&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy cheap &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy cheap&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy cheap&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy outlet &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy outlet&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy outlet&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy sale &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy clothes&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy sale&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy store &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy store&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy store&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy mens &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy mens&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/ed-hardy-mens.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy mens&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy womens &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy womens&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/ed-hardy-womens.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy womens&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;
ed hardy kids &lt;a title=&quot;ed hardy kids&quot; href=&quot;http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/kids.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ed hardy kids&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt; ed hardy kids</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ed hardy <a title="ed hardy" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy</strong></a><br />
ed hardy clothing <a title="ed hardy clothing" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy clothing</strong></a><br />
ed hardy shop <a title="ed hardy shop" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy shop</strong></a><br />
christian audigier <a title="christian audigier" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/christian-audigier.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>christian audigier</strong></a><br />
ed hardy cheap <a title="ed hardy cheap" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy cheap</strong></a><br />
ed hardy outlet <a title="ed hardy outlet" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy outlet</strong></a><br />
ed hardy sale <a title="ed hardy clothes" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy sale</strong></a><br />
ed hardy store <a title="ed hardy store" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy store</strong></a><br />
ed hardy mens <a title="ed hardy mens" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/ed-hardy-mens.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy mens</strong></a><br />
ed hardy womens <a title="ed hardy womens" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/ed-hardy-womens.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy womens</strong></a><br />
ed hardy kids <a title="ed hardy kids" href="http://www.edhardyplus.co.uk/kids.html" rel="nofollow"><strong>ed hardy kids</strong></a> ed hardy kids</p>
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		<title>By: mobiledisco</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-23298</link>
		<dc:creator>mobiledisco</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Dec 2008 11:31:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-23298</guid>
		<description>As sound as your point is, this story was not &#039;discovered&#039; by enterprising journalists, it was handed, indeed promoted to them by people representing the scientists you are so keen to let off the hook. Scientists who knew what was being done in their name (either that or they are so unaware of what goes on around them that they shouldn&#039;t be let out of the house unaccompanied) and who, I bet, did not start and end their conversations with journalists with &#039;by the way, this data means nothing of great significance&#039;. The scientist you spoke to said he &#039;tried to explain&#039;. As if he was going to fess up to doing anything else! You accept this as gospel truth without question. Did he really do that? Why not apply your usual rigour to this claim too? There will be notebooks, tapes, etc which could prove this, and I bet they would not show him demonstrating nearly as much caution as he claims he did, and which you unquestioningly accept. If the stats are really as weak as they seem to be he could simply have refused to be interviewed, or repeated the bit about lacking statistical significance over and over until the journalists went away, or not actively participated in the promotion of his research in the first place.

I am a huge admirer of your stuff Ben, but you of all people realise that the heart of all ratonal consideration, scientific or otherwise, is impartiality. Question everything or your conclusions will be lopsided and at least appear like you&#039;re just handing a pass to your fellow scientists while blaming absolutely everything on the journalists who write it up. Both sides bear responsibility for nonsense like this. It would not harm your case a jot to acknowledge it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As sound as your point is, this story was not &#8216;discovered&#8217; by enterprising journalists, it was handed, indeed promoted to them by people representing the scientists you are so keen to let off the hook. Scientists who knew what was being done in their name (either that or they are so unaware of what goes on around them that they shouldn&#8217;t be let out of the house unaccompanied) and who, I bet, did not start and end their conversations with journalists with &#8216;by the way, this data means nothing of great significance&#8217;. The scientist you spoke to said he &#8216;tried to explain&#8217;. As if he was going to fess up to doing anything else! You accept this as gospel truth without question. Did he really do that? Why not apply your usual rigour to this claim too? There will be notebooks, tapes, etc which could prove this, and I bet they would not show him demonstrating nearly as much caution as he claims he did, and which you unquestioningly accept. If the stats are really as weak as they seem to be he could simply have refused to be interviewed, or repeated the bit about lacking statistical significance over and over until the journalists went away, or not actively participated in the promotion of his research in the first place.</p>
<p>I am a huge admirer of your stuff Ben, but you of all people realise that the heart of all ratonal consideration, scientific or otherwise, is impartiality. Question everything or your conclusions will be lopsided and at least appear like you&#8217;re just handing a pass to your fellow scientists while blaming absolutely everything on the journalists who write it up. Both sides bear responsibility for nonsense like this. It would not harm your case a jot to acknowledge it.</p>
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		<title>By: RossAberdeenUK</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22469</link>
		<dc:creator>RossAberdeenUK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:23:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22469</guid>
		<description>Watching Deming speak at the end of the video there - his words sound like an indictment of the situation the west is now in commercially, due (I have read) to competition and achievement targets within the stockbroking community.

In psychological terms, beliecing with certainty something which is patently untrue is termed a psychosis. Does this mean that all of our commercial institutions are in fact mad? Perhaps some Fish Oil supplements will help.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Watching Deming speak at the end of the video there &#8211; his words sound like an indictment of the situation the west is now in commercially, due (I have read) to competition and achievement targets within the stockbroking community.</p>
<p>In psychological terms, beliecing with certainty something which is patently untrue is termed a psychosis. Does this mean that all of our commercial institutions are in fact mad? Perhaps some Fish Oil supplements will help.</p>
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		<title>By: frontierpsychiatrist</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22200</link>
		<dc:creator>frontierpsychiatrist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Sep 2008 15:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22200</guid>
		<description>What I don&#039;t understand is that
this study appears to have planned to only ever recruit a small number of people from each of the places it wished to study. Does this not mean that from the outset that it would have struggled to achieve statistical significance.  And if you could work this out before even starting, then why do it in the first place?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What I don&#8217;t understand is that<br />
this study appears to have planned to only ever recruit a small number of people from each of the places it wished to study. Does this not mean that from the outset that it would have struggled to achieve statistical significance.  And if you could work this out before even starting, then why do it in the first place?</p>
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		<title>By: gimpyblog</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22120</link>
		<dc:creator>gimpyblog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 06:23:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22120</guid>
		<description>The press release might have been badly presented but the &#039;notes for editors&#039; were clear enough in explaining the implications of no statistical significance.  I find it even more damning of the BBC that the editors ignored the &#039;notes for editors&#039;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The press release might have been badly presented but the &#8216;notes for editors&#8217; were clear enough in explaining the implications of no statistical significance.  I find it even more damning of the BBC that the editors ignored the &#8216;notes for editors&#8217;.</p>
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		<title>By: Robert Carnegie</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22116</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert Carnegie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2008 00:23:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22116</guid>
		<description>I wonder if there&#039;s a way to publish scientific results so that the tabloid version is naturally harmless?  Maybe get a celebrity interested in the work?  There&#039;s plenty of &#039;em to go around.  So that becomes the story and not the connection to immigrants or cancer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder if there&#8217;s a way to publish scientific results so that the tabloid version is naturally harmless?  Maybe get a celebrity interested in the work?  There&#8217;s plenty of &#8216;em to go around.  So that becomes the story and not the connection to immigrants or cancer.</p>
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		<title>By: Ben Goldacre</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22113</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben Goldacre</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:21:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22113</guid>
		<description>well, we can see from the press release that this was irresponsibly presented to the media in any case, but i am quite concerned by the suggestion from people here and in my emails that academics should not dare to release some forms of information for fear that it will be misunderstood or overstated by jourbnalists. that seems like a pretty ridiculous gagging order to me, the media arent the only consideration when academics decide what utterances to make to each other, or &quot;in public&quot;, whatever the difference might be bnetween those two these days.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>well, we can see from the press release that this was irresponsibly presented to the media in any case, but i am quite concerned by the suggestion from people here and in my emails that academics should not dare to release some forms of information for fear that it will be misunderstood or overstated by jourbnalists. that seems like a pretty ridiculous gagging order to me, the media arent the only consideration when academics decide what utterances to make to each other, or &#8220;in public&#8221;, whatever the difference might be bnetween those two these days.</p>
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		<title>By: kooshster</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22111</link>
		<dc:creator>kooshster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:17:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22111</guid>
		<description>While the media have been wrong to run with the &quot;happiness rankings&quot; the way they have done, with no evidence in the study to suggest that these rankings weren&#039;t the result of random variation, this ranking table didn&#039;t come from nowhere. It was irresponsible for such a ranking table to have been constructed in the first place.

It&#039;s not a new phenomenon that the media try to sensationalise academic studies into scare stories, but you can hardly fault them in this case when such a juicy piece of gossip such as a ranking of British towns and cities by how happy they are is waved right under their noses.

If the findings were not &quot;statistically significant&quot; then the researcher should never have allowed the ranking table to be written.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While the media have been wrong to run with the &#8220;happiness rankings&#8221; the way they have done, with no evidence in the study to suggest that these rankings weren&#8217;t the result of random variation, this ranking table didn&#8217;t come from nowhere. It was irresponsible for such a ranking table to have been constructed in the first place.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not a new phenomenon that the media try to sensationalise academic studies into scare stories, but you can hardly fault them in this case when such a juicy piece of gossip such as a ranking of British towns and cities by how happy they are is waved right under their noses.</p>
<p>If the findings were not &#8220;statistically significant&#8221; then the researcher should never have allowed the ranking table to be written.</p>
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		<title>By: mikewhit</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22083</link>
		<dc:creator>mikewhit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:54:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22083</guid>
		<description>&quot;The people who know how best to do the job are usually the ones doing it&quot; - well, no.

They know how they are currently doing the job.

What about having experience of similar or even analogous work - that might let you &quot;improve&quot; (from the worker or productivity angle) how you do the work ?

In this case it would be someone perhaps with oversight of the whole process who is better placed, as long as they could see how the detail was done too.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The people who know how best to do the job are usually the ones doing it&#8221; &#8211; well, no.</p>
<p>They know how they are currently doing the job.</p>
<p>What about having experience of similar or even analogous work &#8211; that might let you &#8220;improve&#8221; (from the worker or productivity angle) how you do the work ?</p>
<p>In this case it would be someone perhaps with oversight of the whole process who is better placed, as long as they could see how the detail was done too.</p>
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		<title>By: JMS</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22073</link>
		<dc:creator>JMS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2008 10:21:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22073</guid>
		<description>@ 12 Pro-reason

I don&#039;t think Deming is against performance related pay simply because it is unfair, but because it is unproductive.  In the red bead experiment suppose that there was some subtle way to influence the outcome, say the red beads where slightly magnetic for example.  Now what would be the best strategy for a smart worker who discovered this?  They would not tell their colleagues because then they would loose their advantage.  They would not tell the company because then there is no game/experiment and no extra pay.  Worse (from the company&#039;s point of view) the smart worker would have to be careful not  to exploit his advantage too much for fear of being found out.  If he/she won best employee every time people would begin to suspect and try to discover the secret.

The &quot;treat &#039;em mean to keep &#039;em keen&quot; school of management is really more about enforcing and maintaining power relationships, not about maximizing profits.   This may be relevant to military situations but if you are trying to improve production or quality, cooperation is by far the best way.  The people who know how best to do the job are usually the ones doing it, not those trying to manage the process.   In my experience organizations work despite their management rather than because of it.  I have often thought that a good way to destroy a company or business would be if the workers did exactly what the managers told them to do however my union has advised me that the courts would consider this as industrial action!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ 12 Pro-reason</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think Deming is against performance related pay simply because it is unfair, but because it is unproductive.  In the red bead experiment suppose that there was some subtle way to influence the outcome, say the red beads where slightly magnetic for example.  Now what would be the best strategy for a smart worker who discovered this?  They would not tell their colleagues because then they would loose their advantage.  They would not tell the company because then there is no game/experiment and no extra pay.  Worse (from the company&#8217;s point of view) the smart worker would have to be careful not  to exploit his advantage too much for fear of being found out.  If he/she won best employee every time people would begin to suspect and try to discover the secret.</p>
<p>The &#8220;treat &#8216;em mean to keep &#8216;em keen&#8221; school of management is really more about enforcing and maintaining power relationships, not about maximizing profits.   This may be relevant to military situations but if you are trying to improve production or quality, cooperation is by far the best way.  The people who know how best to do the job are usually the ones doing it, not those trying to manage the process.   In my experience organizations work despite their management rather than because of it.  I have often thought that a good way to destroy a company or business would be if the workers did exactly what the managers told them to do however my union has advised me that the courts would consider this as industrial action!</p>
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		<title>By: Pro-reason</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22071</link>
		<dc:creator>Pro-reason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2008 06:42:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22071</guid>
		<description>I think I agree with those businessmen over Deming.

I think that Deming is against penalising people for red beads simply because it is unfair.  However, from a business point of view, it doesn&#039;t matter that your rewards and punishments are sometimes arbitrary.  All that matters is that the workers understand that they need to whatever they can do to achieve results.

Oderint dum metuant, as some shite once rightly said.

Business isn&#039;t about fairness and co-operation.  It&#039;s about “do this because I say so, and I can fire you”.  It&#039;s unfair and illogical to begin with, so making a fair and logical version of it won&#039;t succeed.

That&#039;s not to say he doesn&#039;t have some good practical ideas, though.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think I agree with those businessmen over Deming.</p>
<p>I think that Deming is against penalising people for red beads simply because it is unfair.  However, from a business point of view, it doesn&#8217;t matter that your rewards and punishments are sometimes arbitrary.  All that matters is that the workers understand that they need to whatever they can do to achieve results.</p>
<p>Oderint dum metuant, as some shite once rightly said.</p>
<p>Business isn&#8217;t about fairness and co-operation.  It&#8217;s about “do this because I say so, and I can fire you”.  It&#8217;s unfair and illogical to begin with, so making a fair and logical version of it won&#8217;t succeed.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not to say he doesn&#8217;t have some good practical ideas, though.</p>
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		<title>By: Dudley</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22068</link>
		<dc:creator>Dudley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Sep 2008 17:07:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22068</guid>
		<description>I also bought &quot;How to Lie wih Statistics&quot; - very good, but a slightly misleading title.  It hasn&#039;t taught me how to lie with statistics at all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I also bought &#8220;How to Lie wih Statistics&#8221; &#8211; very good, but a slightly misleading title.  It hasn&#8217;t taught me how to lie with statistics at all.</p>
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		<title>By: isitmedicine</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22067</link>
		<dc:creator>isitmedicine</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Sep 2008 16:32:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22067</guid>
		<description>You might be interested to know that last week the BBC News website had in its &#039;most read&#039; box a series of articles by a Michael Blastland explaining the myths behind statistics, how to read them, etc - similar in a sense to this column - part 5 with links to the other parts here: 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7592579.stm


Maybe the BBC journos should be reading the BBC&#039;s own popular stories.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You might be interested to know that last week the BBC News website had in its &#8216;most read&#8217; box a series of articles by a Michael Blastland explaining the myths behind statistics, how to read them, etc &#8211; similar in a sense to this column &#8211; part 5 with links to the other parts here:<br />
<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7592579.stm" rel="nofollow">http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7592579.stm</a></p>
<p>Maybe the BBC journos should be reading the BBC&#8217;s own popular stories.</p>
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		<title>By: mrmuz</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22064</link>
		<dc:creator>mrmuz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Sep 2008 06:35:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22064</guid>
		<description>That Deming guy is a menace.  Getting rid of evaluations and promoting &lt;i&gt;co-operation&lt;/i&gt;!  Why, there&#039;d be nothing left for most managers to do.  Think of the unemployment!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That Deming guy is a menace.  Getting rid of evaluations and promoting <i>co-operation</i>!  Why, there&#8217;d be nothing left for most managers to do.  Think of the unemployment!</p>
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		<title>By: peterd102</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22062</link>
		<dc:creator>peterd102</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Sep 2008 19:55:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22062</guid>
		<description>I bougt and read &#039;How to lie with statistics&#039; on Ben&#039;s recommendations (thanks Ben!) and its really useful to use when presented with these kinds of story. You have to Dig a little deeper before relying on a statistic.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I bougt and read &#8216;How to lie with statistics&#8217; on Ben&#8217;s recommendations (thanks Ben!) and its really useful to use when presented with these kinds of story. You have to Dig a little deeper before relying on a statistic.</p>
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		<title>By: BenN</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22060</link>
		<dc:creator>BenN</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Sep 2008 16:28:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22060</guid>
		<description>Nice Divine Comedy reference (oh, and interesting article, as always, thanks).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice Divine Comedy reference (oh, and interesting article, as always, thanks).</p>
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		<title>By: oneoffmanmental</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22059</link>
		<dc:creator>oneoffmanmental</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:33:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22059</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think the BBC is entirely to blame. The &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.rgs.org/NR/rdonlyres/A2A6A03F-A4CC-44CD-9112-0B9A94F5A670/0/GeographersMapHappiestPlacesInBritain.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Royal Geographical Society&lt;/a&gt; spun the story, with only tiny footnotes saying it&#039;s all bollocks. No surprise that Ballas&#039; work is influential in that Cities Unlimited report either?

Also, the authors research was published their stats in Arxiv, not a journal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think the BBC is entirely to blame. The <a href="http://www.rgs.org/NR/rdonlyres/A2A6A03F-A4CC-44CD-9112-0B9A94F5A670/0/GeographersMapHappiestPlacesInBritain.pdf" rel="nofollow">Royal Geographical Society</a> spun the story, with only tiny footnotes saying it&#8217;s all bollocks. No surprise that Ballas&#8217; work is influential in that Cities Unlimited report either?</p>
<p>Also, the authors research was published their stats in Arxiv, not a journal.</p>
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		<title>By: David Mingay</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22058</link>
		<dc:creator>David Mingay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:03:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22058</guid>
		<description>Which over-enthusiastic press office put this out in the first place, I wondered. I&#039;ve had a look at the output from Manchester and Sheffield universities. Not guilty. But there&#039;s this from the Royal Geographical Society:

http://www.rgs.org/PressRoom/Annual+Conference+2008/geographers+map+happiness.htm

It&#039;s not till note to editors number 7 that the truth comes out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Which over-enthusiastic press office put this out in the first place, I wondered. I&#8217;ve had a look at the output from Manchester and Sheffield universities. Not guilty. But there&#8217;s this from the Royal Geographical Society:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.rgs.org/PressRoom/Annual+Conference+2008/geographers+map+happiness.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.rgs.org/PressRoom/Annual+Conference+2008/geographers+map+happiness.htm</a></p>
<p>It&#8217;s not till note to editors number 7 that the truth comes out.</p>
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		<title>By: SubMoron</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22057</link>
		<dc:creator>SubMoron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:38:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22057</guid>
		<description>Didn&#039;t want to know because it would have spoiled the story?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Didn&#8217;t want to know because it would have spoiled the story?</p>
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		<title>By: Toenex</title>
		<link>http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/comment-page-1/#comment-22056</link>
		<dc:creator>Toenex</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Sep 2008 09:40:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.badscience.net/2008/09/the-certainty-of-chance/#comment-22056</guid>
		<description>The difficulty that most people encounter with statistics is the interpretation of the statistic not the mathematics.  The calculation of an average is fraught with potential confounds and belied by the relative simplicity of the calculation.  Gaining a representative sample of anything is non-trivial and there are many texts written on the various approaches you can take.  My field of expertise is medical imaging and, as with most scientific disciplines, experiments are constructed in an attempt to suppress most variables and focus on the ones of interest  Still it proves difficult to accurately quantify the volume of a tumor or the change in minimum joint space width in the knee.  How then to assess the relationship between arbitrary geographical markers and something as weakly defined as &#039;happiness&#039; in a population of people?  I would have hoped that most sane people wouldn&#039;t have needed to read any further than the basic aim of the experiment to be dubious of any informative result.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The difficulty that most people encounter with statistics is the interpretation of the statistic not the mathematics.  The calculation of an average is fraught with potential confounds and belied by the relative simplicity of the calculation.  Gaining a representative sample of anything is non-trivial and there are many texts written on the various approaches you can take.  My field of expertise is medical imaging and, as with most scientific disciplines, experiments are constructed in an attempt to suppress most variables and focus on the ones of interest  Still it proves difficult to accurately quantify the volume of a tumor or the change in minimum joint space width in the knee.  How then to assess the relationship between arbitrary geographical markers and something as weakly defined as &#8216;happiness&#8217; in a population of people?  I would have hoped that most sane people wouldn&#8217;t have needed to read any further than the basic aim of the experiment to be dubious of any informative result.</p>
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