To avoid play the “naysayr” of apocalypse for the media but could you please any insights on the proccedure that Novartis -if I’m right- followed during the assesment of their swine flue vaccine? Or maybe resources on other reliable analyses in order to make an informed desision?

Thanks.

I’m hoping this will be a bit like calling International Rescue. Just leave a message and hope you’ll receive it.

I’ve tried to send the following link via email but have snags a my end.

This is doing the rounds of service websites and is provoking much comment.

My own comments are under the screen name Peebs.

www.romft.co.uk/smf1/index.php?topic=10538.0

I would be grateful if you would have a look and comment.

Apologies for the sometimes profane language and obscure naval slang.

Peebs

This is a bit like saying because 20% patients with chlamydia also have HPV infection, 20% of the general population do.
Massive selection bias issue here, Ben.
True seroprevalence was more like 15% in Edinburgh drug users, if I recall.

Yes, people do know, or at least have workable, plausible hypotheses with considerable evidence that explains why.

In Glasgow, drug users tended to inhabit a subculture where citric acid (jif) was used to dissolve the heroin preinjection. This has been shown to inactivate HIV in vitro. Edinburgh drug users never really caught onto this technique.

One thing Edinburgh drug users did was to frequent “shooting galleries”, sites where they could go to to obtain drugs and inject them at the same time on site. Reason was the Lothian and Borders Police in the early 1980s used to interpret the drug legislation in a particular way – if you were caught in posesion of drug paraphernalia you could be charged. (This never happened in Glasgow). To overcome this inconvenience, they would go along to a shooting gallery site, obtain their smack, borrow the equipment from the dealer, inject, then go away. No drugs or equipment in their possesion; no chance of the Polis coming down on them. Result: Multiple shared injecting equipment, high prevalence of blood borne viruses like HIV, Hep B and C.

Make sure it -is- an exercise before sending someone to get the Crown Jewels…

I’m not sure that you were asked to comment in order to provide “balance”, more likely in order to provide “conflict”. It’s much more interesting from a media perspective to have two diametrically opposed views arguing as heatedly as possible – a dispassionate and considered view of the facts doesn’t attract viewers.

And as far as comedy names go, I quite like The Daily Show’s “Snoutbreak”.

Bring back the Black Death – 40% mortality, and the world population will still be about what it was when I was 10 years old. I wonder what the human equivalent of myxomatosis would look like? That might be a bit more effective. Jolly good for getting the CO2 footprint down.

nb. a breeding population of 6,825 million rather overestimates the fertility of those past the menopause…

The answer is that this scare is a way for governments to get rid of the huge stocks of Tamiflu they ordered three years ago and didn’t need for the Avian Flu scare. The shelf life of Tamiflu is apparently three years, so unless it all gets used now it will have to be chucked away. Three years = three years; no coincidence there I’m sure you’ll agree.

Great stuff.